What you're looking at: move the threshold to decide when the endpoint should use its own forecast; lower Brier is better, and the table below shows exactly which events switch between trade and abstain.
PA scoring rule: (team Brier - market Brier) x completion rate. Jibang Wu (PA, Discord 2026-05-16): "only make a prediction when you are confident enough, otherwise just use the market probability."
This page visualizes that policy on our 26 resolved events. Slide the threshold to control how confident the model has to be (distance from 0.5) before we trade. Below threshold -> fall back to 0.5 (proxy for market price; PA-live this would be the actual snapshotted market). The chart updates live.