Side-by-side gallery - open events

What you're looking at: these are unresolved sample events, so the useful signal is disagreement; red spread cells mark rows worth opening later when actuals or live PA calls arrive.

42 unresolved events across PA's three open sample datasets (Economics, Entertainment, Sports). Same retrieval + prompt as production, five alternative LLMs swapped in. No actuals yet - instead the cross-model spread column surfaces where models disagree (red = high spread, useful as a triage signal when live events arrive).

How to read this page

Each column is the same pipeline with a different LLM. Five model swaps share identical retrieval + prompt + post-processing.
Per-cell: model's probability for outcomes[0] (PA's "first outcome" convention). Darker shading = more confident (further from 0.5). Hover for the exact number and the outcome label.
Striped err / no signal cells mean that model failed JSON parsing on this event; the uniform-prior fallback (1/n) is NOT a real prediction. Common on multi-outcome events where the LLM emits malformed JSON, fenced markdown, or labels not in the supplied outcomes list. These cells are excluded from the cross-model spread.
Cross-model spread = max(p) - min(p) across successful parses for outcomes[0]. Red > 0.3 marks events where models disagree most - those are where retrieval coverage or category specialization matter most.
Why does outcomes[0] have such different probabilities across models? For multi-outcome ordinal questions (e.g. "what range will Germany Q1 GDP fall into?") the outcomes are cumulative bands that overlap by design. A model that puts mass on "Above 0.5%" should still rate "Above -0.4%" high. When you see one model at 92% and another at 7%, that's almost always a parse failure on the 7% side, not a real disagreement.

-> resolved events gallery - -> summary report - -> home

Economics - 13 open events

event	cross-model spread	Sonnet 4.6	Opus 4.6	GPT-5.2	GPT-5.5	Gemini 3.1 Pro
What range will Germany's Q1 2026 GDP growth (QoQ, flash estimate) fall into? n_outcomes=15 - p shown is for: Above -0.4%	0.00	0.97	0.97	errno signal	errno signal	errno signal
What range will Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth (QoQ, flash estimate) fall into? n_outcomes=15 - p shown is for: Above -0.1%	0.04	0.95	0.97	errno signal	0.93	errno signal
What range will US housing starts for April 2026 fall into (released May 2026)? n_outcomes=8 - p shown is for: Above 1.400M	0.31	0.45	0.29	0.60	0.58	errno signal
What rate action will the Bank of Canada take at its July 15, 2026 meeting? n_outcomes=5 - p shown is for: Cut >25bps	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	errno signal
What rate action will the Bank of Japan take at its June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? n_outcomes=5 - p shown is for: Cut more than 25bps	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	errno signal
What rate action will the Reserve Bank of Australia take at its June 2026 board meeting? n_outcomes=5 - p shown is for: Cut more than 25bps	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	errno signal
What will US CPI month-over-month be for June 2026? n_outcomes=9 - p shown is for: Exactly -0.2%	0.00	0.06	0.06	0.06	errno signal	errno signal
What will US CPI year-over-year be for May 2026 (released June 10, 2026)? n_outcomes=16 - p shown is for: Exactly 2.0%	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	errno signal	errno signal
What will US core CPI month-over-month be for May 2026? n_outcomes=8 - p shown is for: Exactly -0.2%	0.00	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06	errno signal
What will US core CPI year-over-year be for June 2026? n_outcomes=16 - p shown is for: Exactly 2.2%	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	errno signal	errno signal
What will the AAA US average regular gas price be on November 3, 2026 (Election Day)? n_outcomes=11 - p shown is for: Above 2.50	0.10	0.92	0.95	0.85	errno signal	errno signal
Where will the US Treasury 10-year par yield close on June 30, 2026 (end of Q2)? n_outcomes=15 - p shown is for: Above 3.60%	0.08	0.85	0.93	errno signal	errno signal	errno signal
Where will the upper bound of the US federal funds target rate sit after the September 2026 FOMC meeting? n_outcomes=11 - p shown is for: Above 2.75%	0.09	0.88	0.97	errno signal	errno signal	errno signal

Entertainment - 13 open events

event	cross-model spread	Sonnet 4.6	Opus 4.6	GPT-5.2	GPT-5.5	Gemini 3.1 Pro
How many views will the #1 show on Netflix have on the chart published May 19, 2026? n_outcomes=11 - p shown is for: At least 6 million	0.06	0.93	0.96	0.90	errno signal	errno signal
When will Drake release 'Iceman Episode 4' worldwide through official channels? n_outcomes=5 - p shown is for: Before Jan 1, 2026	0.00	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	errno signal
When will Drake release the album 'Iceman' on Spotify? n_outcomes=4 - p shown is for: Before February	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	errno signal
Which acts will finish in the top 5 at the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Grand Final? n_outcomes=35 - p shown is for: Albania	0.06	0.12	0.06	errno signal	errno signal	errno signal
Which show will win Best Action Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? n_outcomes=7 - p shown is for: DAN DA DAN Season 2	0.04	0.23	0.23	0.19	errno signal	errno signal
Which show will win Best Animation at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? n_outcomes=7 - p shown is for: DAN DA DAN Season 2	0.06	0.20	0.26	0.20	0.22	errno signal
Which show will win Best Anime Score at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? n_outcomes=7 - p shown is for: The Apothecary Diaries	0.00	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07	errno signal
Which show will win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? n_outcomes=7 - p shown is for: Clevatess	0.03	0.07	0.07	0.10	errno signal	errno signal
Which show will win Best Romance Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? n_outcomes=7 - p shown is for: Blue Box	0.06	0.13	0.18	0.16	0.19	errno signal
Which show will win Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series at the 78th Emmy Awards (Sep 2026)? n_outcomes=11 - p shown is for: Beef	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	errno signal	errno signal
Who will appear as a guest on The Late Show between August 2025 and June 2026? n_outcomes=6 - p shown is for: Ryan Gosling	0.40	0.57	0.95	0.97	0.90	errno signal
Who will win Female Artist of the Year at the 61st Academy of Country Music Awards (May 2026)? n_outcomes=6 - p shown is for: Ella Langley	0.01	0.08	0.08	0.09	0.08	errno signal
Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) before May 27, 2026? n_outcomes=1 - p shown is for: By May 26, 2026	0.90	1.00	0.10	1.00	0.18	0.35

Sports - 16 open events

event	cross-model spread	Sonnet 4.6	Opus 4.6	GPT-5.2	GPT-5.5	Gemini 3.1 Pro
Which clubs will finish in the top 4 of the 2025-26 Bundesliga season? n_outcomes=18 - p shown is for: Bayern Munich	0.00	0.97	0.97	0.97	errno signal	errno signal
Who will be the 2026 Premier League Darts champion? n_outcomes=8 - p shown is for: Luke Littler	0.09	0.33	0.32	0.24	errno signal	errno signal
Who will win the 2025-26 English Premier League? n_outcomes=20 - p shown is for: Liverpool	0.15	0.35	0.30	0.20	errno signal	errno signal
Who will win the 2025-26 EuroLeague basketball championship? n_outcomes=10 - p shown is for: Valencia Basket	0.02	0.05	0.05	0.07	0.06	errno signal
Who will win the 2025-26 FA Cup? n_outcomes=23 - p shown is for: Liverpool	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	errno signal
Who will win the 2025-26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP)? n_outcomes=30 - p shown is for: Connor McDavid	0.09	0.27	0.18	errno signal	errno signal	errno signal
Who will win the 2026 NBA Eastern Conference championship? n_outcomes=15 - p shown is for: Detroit	0.03	0.15	0.11	errno signal	errno signal	errno signal
Who will win the 2026 NBA Finals? n_outcomes=30 - p shown is for: Atlanta	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	errno signal	errno signal
Who will win the 2026 NBA Western Conference championship? n_outcomes=15 - p shown is for: Dallas	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	errno signal	errno signal
Who will win the NBA Round 2 series between Minnesota (6) and San Antonio (2)? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: San Antonio	0.00	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90
Will Boston beat Atlanta in the MLB game on May 15, 2026 (7:15 PM EDT)? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: Boston	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
Will Cincinnati beat Cleveland in the MLB game on May 15, 2026 (7:10 PM EDT)? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: Cincinnati	0.35	0.88	0.55	0.90	0.90	0.90
Will Cleveland beat Detroit in NBA Eastern Conference Game 6 on May 15, 2026? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: Cleveland	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
Will Minnesota beat San Antonio in NBA Western Conference Game 6 on May 15, 2026? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: Minnesota	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
Will Philadelphia beat Pittsburgh in the MLB game on May 15, 2026 (6:40 PM EDT)? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: Philadelphia	0.37	0.45	0.45	0.48	0.11	0.15
Will Zsombor Piros beat Lukas Neumayer in the ATP Challenger Zagreb Quarterfinal on May 15, 2026? n_outcomes=2 - p shown is for: Zsombor Piros	0.36	0.90	0.57	0.56	0.54	0.54