The Oracles

Live team: CanadaHacks variant: multi_outcome_retrieval uptime: 19d 5h commit: 69e9bff9 GitHub Tour

A calibrated forecasting agent for Prophet Hacks 2026. Each event we receive is enriched with web evidence, scored by Claude Opus 4.7 with explicit market-odds anchoring, and protected by a Kalshi longshot floor before the probabilities are returned.

Status right now

Endpoint

ACTIVE

registered with Prophet Arena

Predictions served

174

since process start

API spend

$17.400

~$0.1000 per event

Last call from Prophet Arena

never

—

First-call triage

PA activity observed. First live payload review should focus on schema, latency, parser path, warnings, and evidence coverage.

Event	Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club vs Baduraliya CC
Outcome count	2 outcomes
Total latency	2557 ms
Parse path	direct
Warnings	none
Evidence URLs	3 evidence URLs

Do not change production variant until this table shows a real failure mode and a measured alternative beats it.

What our agent does

ForecastingPath agent architecture: ingest event payload, gather high-signal web evidence, prioritize and deduplicate sources, estimate per-outcome probabilities with an LLM, apply longshot safeguard, return structured JSON — Pipeline overview. Each event flows through six stages, every stage logged and recoverable.

The text form, for accessibility and detail:

1. Receive event JSON › 2. Search Brave for top 5 evidence URLs › 3. Dedupe by source priority (.gov / .edu first) › 4. Opus 4.7 reads evidence (anchors on any cited market odds), assigns per-outcome probability › 5. Kalshi longshot guard floors low values › 6. Return JSON to scoring server

Scoring is the standard Brier score, averaged across all outcomes per event:

Per-event Brier (lower is better)

$$ \mathrm{Brier}_{e} = \sum_{o \in O_e} \bigl( p_o - \mathbb{1}[o = \text{winner}] \bigr)^2 $$

Kalshi longshot guard (applied per outcome)

$$ p_o \;\gets\; \max\!\left(p_o, \; \min\!\left(0.10, \; \max\!\left(0.05, \frac{0.5}{|O_e|}\right)\right)\right) $$

Why the guard: Whelan's analysis of Kalshi shows buyers of contracts priced under $0.10 lose >60% on average. LLMs are especially prone to dropping unlikely outcomes to near-zero on vivid narratives, so we floor them.

Recent predictions (50)

20:24:58SportsKXT20MATCH-26MAY310430BADNUG

Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club vs Baduraliya CC

Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club50%

Baduraliya CC50%

No specific evidence on team form or head-to-head; defaulting to prior.

Evidence: www.espncricinfo.com · www.cricket365.com · en.wikipedia.org

20:11:03SportsKXT20MATCH-26MAY310015ACESIN

Sinhalese Sports Club vs Ace Capital CC

Ace Capital CC55%

Sinhalese Sports Club45%

Recent head-to-head results favor Ace Capital, giving them a slight edge.

Evidence: www.sofascore.com · www.espncricinfo.com · www.espn.in · www.kismasport.com

20:01:15Climate and WeatherKXHIGHLAX-26JUN01

Highest temperature in LA on Jun 1, 2026?

76° or above15%

74° to 75°17%

70° to 71°23%

72° to 73°21%

68° to 69°15%

67° or below10%

LAX early June typically peaks low 70s due to marine layer; distribution centered around 70-73°F.

Evidence: www.currentresults.com · en.climate-data.org · www.laalmanac.com · usclimatedata.com

19:46:03Climate and WeatherKXHIGHNY-26JUN01

Highest temperature in NYC on Jun 1, 2026?

69° or below13%

72° to 73°18%

70° to 71°16%

74° to 75°17%

78° or above19%

76° to 77°17%

June 1 NYC average high ~75°F; distribution roughly centered there with modest spread.

Evidence: www.currentresults.com · www.accuweather.com · en.climate-data.org · www.wunderground.com · coolweather.net

19:36:20EconomicsKXAAAGASD-26JUN02

US gas prices on Jun 2, 2026

Above 4.29512%

Above 4.30511%

Above 4.29012%

Above 4.30011%

Above 4.31010%

Above 4.31510%

Above 4.3209%

Above 4.28013%

Above 4.27513%

Above 4.3407%

Above 4.3308%

Above 4.28512%

Above 4.27014%

Above 4.3259%

Above 4.3357%

Current US gas prices are well below $4 (~$3.10-3.20 range); reaching above $4.27-4.34 by June 2026 is unlikely absent major shock.

Evidence: www.eia.gov · ycharts.com · changelly.com · wallethub.com

19:30:46EntertainmentKXSPOTIFYGLOBALD-26JUN01

Top Global Song on Spotify on Jun 1, 2026?

SWIM6%

Beat It6%

hate that i made you love me13%

Billie Jean6%

Beauty And A Beat6%

Babydoll6%

the cure6%

Janice STFU6%

Earrings6%

The One That Got Away6%

DtMF6%

Choosin' Texas6%

back to friends8%

drop dead6%

Chicago6%

Jun 1 2026 is months away; current #1 'hate that i made you love me' has slight edge but songs rarely hold #1 that long, leaving high uncertainty across all options.

Evidence: inmusicblog.com · thatgrapejuice.net · open.spotify.com

19:25:28EntertainmentKXSPOTIFYD-26JUN01

Top USA Song on Spotify on Jun 1, 2026?

Choosin' Texas5%

hate that i made you love me12%

Janice STFU6%

the cure6%

Billie Jean5%

Earrings6%

Be Her6%

Chicago6%

Shabang6%

Babydoll6%

National Treasures6%

Whisper My Name6%

Beat It5%

Mr. Brightside5%

Ran To Atlanta (feat. Future & Molly Santana)15%

High uncertainty 6 months out; slight lean to recent Drake/Future track and trending titles, low weight on catalog classics.

Evidence: open.spotify.com · www.letras.com · genius.com · www.atlast.fm

19:18:39EconomicsKXTRUEV-26JUN01

EV commodity prices on Jun 1, 2026

Above 1257.2850%

Above 1247.2855%

Above 1277.2842%

Above 1307.2830%

Above 1327.2822%

Above 1267.2846%

Above 1287.2838%

Above 1297.2834%

Above 1197.2872%

Above 1207.2868%

Above 1217.2864%

Above 1227.2860%

Above 1237.2858%

Above 1317.2825%

Above 1337.2818%

Without the specific Truflation EV index value, distributed probabilities symmetrically around the central threshold with slight upward tilt from broad commodity price forecasts.

Evidence: www.reuters.com · www.worldbank.org · blogs.worldbank.org · www.bloomberg.com · tradingeconomics.com

18:58:40CommoditiesKXSILVERD-26JUN0117

Silver price on June 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

above $7582%

above $75.5070%

above $7645%

above $74.5088%

above $74.2590%

above $7492%

above $7718%

above $75.2578%

above $74.7585%

above $75.7555%

above $73.2595%

above $76.2535%

above $77.7510%

above $77.5012%

above $79.255%

above $79.755%

above $72.2596%

above $77.2515%

above $788%

above $76.7522%

above $78.755%

above $73.7593%

above $795%

above $78.257%

above $78.506%

above $76.5028%

above $7296%

above $79.505%

above $7197%

above $7395%

above $71.7596%

above $71.2597%

above $71.5096%

above $73.5094%

above $70.7597%

above $70.5097%

above $72.7595%

above $70.2597%

above $72.5095%

above $7098%

Silver trading around $75.6-76.1 on June 1, 2026; close near $75.5-76 likely.

Evidence: www.jmbullion.com · tradingeconomics.com · finance.yahoo.com · fortune.com

18:38:42CommoditiesKXNATGASD-26JUN0117

Natural gas price on June 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

above $3.3405%

above $3.3705%

above $3.3655%

above $3.3205%

above $3.1805%

above $3.3255%

above $3.2955%

above $3.1755%

above $3.3305%

above $3.2905%

above $3.3855%

above $3.2855%

above $3.2705%

above $3.1855%

above $3.2555%

above $3.1705%

above $3.3955%

above $3.3005%

above $3.2605%

above $3.3155%

above $3.2655%

above $3.3055%

above $3.2005%

above $3.2105%

above $3.2305%

above $3.2755%

above $3.3755%

above $3.2155%

above $3.2405%

above $3.2505%

above $3.3105%

above $3.1605%

above $3.3805%

above $3.1655%

above $3.1555%

above $3.2805%

above $3.3355%

above $3.2055%

above $3.2355%

above $3.2455%

above $3.1905%

above $3.3605%

above $3.2255%

above $3.3905%

above $3.3555%

above $3.0355%

above $3.2205%

above $3.3505%

above $3.1405%

above $3.0255%

above $3.0205%

above $2.9005%

above $2.9955%

above $35%

above $3.0055%

above $3.0105%

above $3.3455%

above $3.0405%

above $3.1505%

above $3.1455%

above $3.1955%

above $2.8805%

above $3.0955%

above $3.1155%

above $3.1355%

above $3.0505%

above $3.0705%

above $3.0655%

above $3.0755%

above $3.0555%

above $3.0805%

above $3.1305%

above $3.0905%

above $3.0455%

above $3.1055%

above $3.1255%

above $3.1105%

above $3.0605%

above $3.0855%

above $3.0305%

above $2.9655%

above $2.9055%

above $2.9105%

above $2.9155%

above $2.9205%

above $2.9255%

above $2.9305%

above $2.9355%

above $2.9405%

above $2.9455%

above $2.9505%

above $2.9555%

above $2.9605%

above $2.9705%

above $2.9755%

above $2.9805%

above $2.9855%

above $2.9905%

above $3.1005%

above $3.1205%

above $2.8505%

above $2.8555%

above $2.8605%

above $2.8755%

above $2.8855%

above $2.8905%

above $2.8955%

above $2.8655%

above $2.8705%

above $3.0155%

llm error: unparseable multi-outcome model output: {"probabilities": {"above $3.340": 0.25, "above $3.370": 0.22, "above $3.365": 0.23, "above $3.320": 0.28, "above $3.180": 0.45, "above $3.325": 0.27, "above $3.295": 0.32, "above $3.175":

Evidence: www.eia.gov · fxdailyreport.com · www.spglobal.com · markets.businessinsider.com · oilprice.net

18:18:38FinancialsKXNASDAQ100-26JUN01H1600

Nasdaq-100 price range on Jun 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

31,600 or above28%

30,500 to 30,599.995%

30,300 to 30,399.995%

30,700 to 30,799.995%

30,400 to 30,499.995%

30,200 to 30,299.995%

30,600 to 30,699.995%

30,000 to 30,099.995%

30,100 to 30,199.995%

28,799.99 or below13%

28,800 to 28,899.995%

28,900 to 28,999.995%

29,000 to 29,099.995%

29,100 to 29,199.995%

29,200 to 29,299.995%

29,300 to 29,399.995%

29,400 to 29,499.995%

29,500 to 29,599.995%

29,600 to 29,699.995%

29,700 to 29,799.995%

29,800 to 29,899.995%

29,900 to 29,999.995%

30,800 to 30,899.995%

30,900 to 30,999.995%

31,000 to 31,099.995%

31,100 to 31,199.995%

31,200 to 31,299.995%

31,300 to 31,399.995%

31,400 to 31,499.995%

31,500 to 31,599.995%

NDX ~30,333 on May 29, 2026; with 1 trading day to June 1, distribution concentrates near current level with fat tails for above-31,600 and below-28,800.

Evidence: finance.yahoo.com · www.investing.com · markets.businessinsider.com

17:58:36FinancialsKXINX-26JUN01H1600

S&P price range on Jun 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,575 to 7,599.999918%

7,550 to 7,574.999913%

7,600 to 7,624.999913%

7,525 to 7,549.99998%

7,199.9999 or below5%

7,625 to 7,649.99998%

7,500 to 7,524.99995%

7,650 to 7,674.99995%

7,675 to 7,699.99995%

7,475 to 7,499.99995%

7,225 to 7,249.99995%

7,200 to 7,224.99995%

7,250 to 7,274.99995%

7,275 to 7,299.99995%

7,300 to 7,324.99995%

7,325 to 7,349.99995%

7,350 to 7,374.99995%

7,375 to 7,399.99995%

7,400 to 7,424.99995%

7,425 to 7,449.99995%

7,450 to 7,474.99995%

7,700 to 7,724.99995%

7,725 to 7,749.99995%

7,750 to 7,774.99995%

7,775 to 7,799.99995%

7,800 to 7,824.99995%

7,825 to 7,849.99995%

7,850 to 7,874.99995%

7,875 to 7,899.99995%

7,900 or above5%

Recent high near 7,599 on May 29 and S&P hovering near record on June 1 suggests close to 7,575-7,625 range.

Evidence: www.cnbc.com · www.investing.com · finance.yahoo.com · www.tradingview.com · timesofindia.indiatimes.com

17:38:36CryptoKXBTCD-26JUN0114

BTC price on Jun 1, 2026 at 2pm EDT?

$71,300 or above5%

$71,400 or above5%

$71,200 or above5%

$71,600 or above5%

$71,800 or above5%

$71,000 or above5%

$71,500 or above5%

$71,700 or above5%

$71,900 or above5%

$71,100 or above5%

$72,000 or above5%

$70,300 or above5%

$70,900 or above5%

$72,100 or above5%

$70,700 or above5%

$72,200 or above5%

$70,800 or above5%

$70,500 or above5%

$72,300 or above5%

$70,600 or above5%

$72,400 or above5%

$64,100 or above5%

$64,200 or above5%

$64,300 or above5%

$64,400 or above5%

$64,500 or above5%

$64,600 or above5%

$64,700 or above5%

$64,800 or above5%

$64,900 or above5%

$65,000 or above5%

$65,100 or above5%

$65,200 or above5%

$65,300 or above5%

$65,400 or above5%

$65,500 or above5%

$65,600 or above5%

$65,700 or above5%

$65,800 or above5%

$65,900 or above5%

$66,000 or above5%

$66,100 or above5%

$66,200 or above5%

$66,300 or above5%

$66,400 or above5%

$66,500 or above5%

$66,600 or above5%

$66,700 or above5%

$66,800 or above5%

$66,900 or above5%

$67,000 or above5%

$67,100 or above5%

$67,200 or above5%

$67,300 or above5%

$67,400 or above5%

$67,500 or above5%

$67,600 or above5%

$67,700 or above5%

$67,800 or above5%

$67,900 or above5%

$68,000 or above5%

$68,100 or above5%

$68,200 or above5%

$68,300 or above5%

$68,400 or above5%

$68,500 or above5%

$68,600 or above5%

$68,700 or above5%

$68,800 or above5%

$68,900 or above5%

$69,000 or above5%

$69,100 or above5%

$69,200 or above5%

$69,300 or above5%

$69,400 or above5%

$69,500 or above5%

$69,600 or above5%

$69,700 or above5%

$69,800 or above5%

$69,900 or above5%

$70,000 or above5%

$70,100 or above5%

$70,200 or above5%

$70,400 or above5%

$72,500 or above5%

$72,600 or above5%

$72,700 or above5%

$72,800 or above5%

$72,900 or above5%

$73,000 or above5%

$73,100 or above5%

$73,200 or above5%

$73,300 or above5%

$73,400 or above5%

$73,500 or above5%

$73,600 or above5%

$73,700 or above5%

$73,800 or above5%

$73,900 or above5%

$74,000 or above5%

$74,100 or above5%

$74,200 or above5%

$74,300 or above5%

$74,400 or above5%

$74,500 or above5%

$74,600 or above5%

$74,700 or above5%

$74,800 or above5%

$74,900 or above5%

$75,000 or above5%

$75,100 or above5%

$75,200 or above5%

$75,300 or above5%

$75,400 or above5%

$75,500 or above5%

$75,600 or above5%

$75,700 or above5%

$75,800 or above5%

$75,900 or above5%

$76,000 or above5%

$76,100 or above5%

$76,200 or above5%

$76,300 or above5%

$76,400 or above5%

$76,500 or above5%

$76,600 or above5%

$76,700 or above5%

$76,800 or above5%

$76,900 or above5%

$77,000 or above5%

$77,100 or above5%

$77,200 or above5%

$77,300 or above5%

$77,400 or above5%

$77,500 or above5%

$77,600 or above5%

$77,700 or above5%

$77,800 or above5%

$77,900 or above5%

$78,000 or above5%

$78,100 or above5%

$78,200 or above5%

$78,300 or above5%

$78,400 or above5%

$78,500 or above5%

$78,600 or above5%

$78,700 or above5%

$78,800 or above5%

$78,900 or above5%

$79,000 or above5%

$79,100 or above5%

$79,200 or above5%

$79,300 or above5%

$79,400 or above5%

$79,500 or above5%

$79,600 or above5%

$79,700 or above5%

$79,800 or above5%

$79,900 or above5%

$80,000 or above5%

$80,100 or above5%

$80,200 or above5%

$80,300 or above5%

$80,400 or above5%

$80,500 or above5%

$80,600 or above5%

$80,700 or above5%

$80,800 or above5%

$80,900 or above5%

$81,000 or above5%

$81,100 or above5%

$81,200 or above5%

$81,300 or above5%

$81,400 or above5%

$81,500 or above5%

$81,600 or above5%

$81,700 or above5%

$81,800 or above5%

$81,900 or above5%

$82,000 or above5%

$82,100 or above5%

$82,200 or above5%

$82,300 or above5%

$82,400 or above5%

$82,500 or above5%

$82,600 or above5%

$82,700 or above5%

$82,800 or above5%

llm error: unparseable multi-outcome model output: {"probabilities": {"$71,300 or above": 0.7, "$71,400 or above": 0.68, "$71,200 or above": 0.72, "$71,600 or above": 0.63, "$71,800 or above": 0.55, "$71,000 or above": 0.76, "$71,500 or abo

Evidence: robinhood.com · www.coindesk.com · www.coinbase.com · fortune.com · coinmarketcap.com

17:34:11CryptoKXBTC15M-26JUN011315

BTC 15 min · $71,466.69 target

Yes50%

No50%

15-min BTC direction is near-random with no directional signal.

Evidence: polymarket.com · robinhood.com · www.coinbase.com · tradersunion.com

20:33:16SportsKXMLBGAME-26MAY301605KCTEX

Kansas City vs Texas

Texas50%

Kansas City50%

No relevant MLB-specific evidence; defaulting near prior with slight lean unclear.

Evidence: www.espn.com · www.chiefs.com · www.footballdb.com

20:29:05SportsKXMLBGAME-26MAY301410DETCWS

Detroit vs Chicago WS

Chicago WS36%

Detroit64%

Tigers are significantly stronger team than rebuilding White Sox; no specific odds for May 30 game cited.

Evidence: www.cbssports.com · www.pickswise.com · www.directv.com · www.blessyouboys.com

20:23:34ElectionsKXENDORSEPRATT-26JUN02

Who will endorse Spencer Pratt before the June primary?

Marjorie Taylor Greene16%

JD Vance16%

Donald Trump Jr.18%

Tucker Carlson18%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.16%

Steve Bannon18%

No specific endorsement signals; low base rates for each individual high-profile Republican endorsing a long-shot LA mayoral candidate.

Evidence: news.kalshi.com · kalshi.com · ballotpedia.org · en.wikipedia.org

20:18:12ElectionsKXNEWSOMENDORSE-26JUN02

Who will Newsom endorse in the California Governor's race?

Xavier Becerra10%

No one60%

Matt Mahan10%

Tom Steyer10%

Katie Porter10%

Newsom declined to endorse Becerra on May 8, 2026; with less than a month to primary close, no endorsement remains most likely.

Evidence: calmatters.org · www.sacbee.com · thehill.com · www.politico.com · ballotpedia.org

20:11:37PoliticsKXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/25 - 5/31)

Above 3070%

Above 10015%

Above 4060%

Above 5045%

Above 7525%

Above 1585%

Above 2575%

Above 2080%

Above 1090%

Above 595%

Traffic disrupted by ongoing Hormuz crisis but some transits continue; uncertainty highest around 30-50 range.

Evidence: www.nbcnews.com · hormuzstraitmonitor.com · en.wikipedia.org · octagonai.co · www.csis.org

19:51:40CommoditiesKXGOLDD-26JUN0117

Gold price on June 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

above $454178%

above $453179%

above $456176%

above $452180%

above $448183%

above $449182%

above $451181%

above $450181%

above $431191%

above $447184%

above $457175%

above $455177%

above $458174%

above $446185%

above $461170%

above $470155%

above $463166%

above $432190%

above $444186%

above $460171%

above $443187%

above $445185%

above $459172%

above $469157%

above $468158%

above $438188%

above $465162%

above $466161%

above $467159%

above $433189%

above $434189%

above $462168%

above $435188%

above $436188%

above $437188%

above $439187%

above $440187%

above $441187%

above $442187%

above $464164%

Gold spot at $4,740 in early May 2026 suggests strong likelihood of remaining above mid-$4500s by June 1, with probabilities decreasing for higher thresholds.

Evidence: www.jmbullion.com · www.bullionvault.com · goldprice.org · www.apmex.com · www.litefinance.org

Open events on Prophet Arena (0)

market_ticker	category	title	close_time
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Try a prediction yourself

Sends an event-shaped request to our production endpoint. You see the exact JSON Prophet Arena gets. Pick an example or write your own — the pipeline does Brave search, Opus 4.7 reads evidence with market-odds anchoring, longshot guard caps low values.

Live pipeline demo

Pipeline

Pick an event and run the demo

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Event
RetrieveBrave Search × 5
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Pipeline output appears here once the run completes.

Variant comparison (26-event backtest)

Brier here is the legacy single-p metric from the local backtest. The multi_outcome_retrieval 0.064 number is contaminated by data leakage (Brave can find articles about resolved past events); live performance on future events does not leak.

Research views

PIN-gated operator pages: model traces, ablation grids, calibration plots, the bootstrap distribution, the variance experiment, and the per-event drill-down.

Judge review briefOne-page demo script, likely questions, current proof, and first-call checklist. ObservatoryLive commit, persisted traces, experiment board, and adversarial-review answers. Summary reportBrier table, bootstrap interval, phase decomposition, calibration plot, and findings. Resolved gallerySide-by-side per-event losses across production and alternative model runs. Open-event galleryModel spread on unresolved events for disagreement triage before PA scoring. Comparison gridAuth-gated model comparison with reliability diagram and event-level rationales. Open comparisonCurrent open-event matrix for checking model agreement and likely failure modes.

Quick links

/compare — multi-model multi-event comparison grid (26 resolved + 5 models, color-coded by Brier)
/compare-open — Opus 4.7 predictions on the 42 open events from sample-economics/-entertainment/-sports
/healthz — server health JSON
/predict — the actual endpoint (POST)
/predictions — last 50 predictions JSON
/events — Server-Sent Events live stream
GitHub repo

The page stays live through Server-Sent Events. New predictions stream in with a brief highlight animation; form results are not wiped by automatic refresh.